Sunbeams and mist along the Merced River, Yosemite
For many places in California, 2013 was the driest year on record. And so far this winter (our usual rainy season) has brought almost no precipitation. January has brought a procession of sunny days, with temperatures in the 60s or even low 70s at my house at 2700 feet in the Sierra foothills. It’s pleasant weather, but weird, and a little scary, as it seems like it will never rain again.
But finally the forecast is calling for rain and higher-elevation snow this week. It’s not supposed to be a big storm, but we’ll take what we can get. The main pulse of this system is due to arrive Thursday, but showers might linger into Friday or even Saturday. Snow levels are expected to stay at around 7,000 feet on Thursday, but may drop to 4,000 feet on Saturday, so it’s possible, though not likely, that Yosemite Valley could get a dusting of snow.
Although this one weather event won’t end the drought, it could provide an opportunity to photograph a clearing storm in Yosemite Valley. Based on the current forecast, Friday looks like the most likely day for this, but we could also see clearing-storm conditions on Saturday if some showers linger long enough. And snow isn’t a requirement; in fact you’ll usually see more mist in Yosemite Valley after a rainstorm than a snowstorm. The photograph above was made after a rainstorm last January.
Could this storm signal the end of our dry weather pattern? Maybe, but so far the computer models seem to indicate that this is just a temporary change, not a long-term shift in the pattern. Of course long-term predictions are less reliable than short-term ones, so we can hope that the models are wrong in this case.
Horsetail Fall is currently bone dry. The upcoming storm should revive it and send a little water over the fall, but we need at least two or three more decent storms between now and mid-February to get the flow up to an average level.
Looking further out, we need a wet February, March, and April to have a normal spring waterfall season in Yosemite, and, more importantly, fill the state’s reservoirs, and water all the trees, grasses, and other plants. Keep your fingers crossed! And you if you know a rain dance…
— Michael Frye
Related Posts: Let It Snow; Autumn Snow
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Michael Frye is a professional photographer specializing in landscapes and nature. He is the author or principal photographer of The Photographer’s Guide to Yosemite, Yosemite Meditations, Yosemite Meditations for Women, and Digital Landscape Photography: In the Footsteps of Ansel Adams and the Great Masters. He has also written three eBooks: Light & Land: Landscapes in the Digital Darkroom, Exposure for Outdoor Photography, and Landscapes in Lightroom 5: The Essential Step-by-Step Guide. Michael written numerous magazine articles on the art and technique of photography, and his images have been published in over thirty countries around the world. Michael has lived either in or near Yosemite National Park since 1983, currently residing just outside the park in Mariposa, California.
Hi Michael,
Thanks for the update. Aside from the included links, are there any weather sites you know of that might give more detailed forecasts than all the usual suspects who give us expected highs and lows? I’d especially like to be able to read the forecast in and around Yosemite a little better.
Thanks.
You’re welcome John. The best source for a more detailed forecast is in the first link in this post, the one to the National Weather Service site for Yosemite. Click on the Forecast Discussion on the right side. You’ll have to wade through some jargon, but you can usually figure out the gist of it, and you’ll get used to it. There’s also the Mammoth weather guy, but that’s for Mammoth, so the weather is a little different:
http://mammothweather.com
Great. Thanks again Michael. I never knew learning photography would require me becoming a meteorologist. 🙂
Oh absolutely John! But that’s just part of the fun. 🙂
John C., have you ever used http://www.accuweather.com? That’s my favorite go-to site, and it has numerous options to see what goes on where.
Michael,
After the big fires here, I learned that the general trend is that the 2-3 Springs afterwards are dry. That certainly was the case here in Colorado (and then when it did rain in the 3rd year, we had the 1000 year rains & 100 year flood….). I hope California is the exception!
Well that’s interesting Monika. Though we have big fires every year in California, so how does that work?
And there have been how many years of drought? 🙂 I remember growing up in Berkeley, we had water restrictions pretty much all the time.
I usually hang out the laundry if I want it to rain. BTW– beautiful photo
Good idea April — I’ll have to try that!
🙂
Wash your car, then it will rain! That’s odd though. I thought it rained much more frequently there.
Okay, I’ll hang out my laundry and wash the car!
Yes, usually it does rain frequently here in the winter, but we’re in the middle of a record-setting drought.
That’s a gorgeous shot. Love the rays heading out in all directions. And thanks for the link to the weather blog. Things are so bad in Sonora, the local water company has already put mandatory rationing in place. I hope this storm lasts through Saturday morning, because I’d love the chance to get at least one clearing storm this year.
Thanks Kevin, and let’s hope we get some decent precipitation out of this coming storm, and that it’s the beginning of a new, wetter pattern.
Hi Michael,
Dark, cold, rainy winter is my favorite season. So far it has been VERY scary and depressing. Now you brighten up my day!
Sharon, let’s hope we get a lot more storms to get you out of your depression. 🙂
It is necessary, yes.
Moss turns squishy green in a matter of hours this afternoon.
I like the Aspen Grove picture in your workshops page.
Hi Michael. We’ve been having similarly dry weather up here in Victoria, BC. The last few months of 2013 were the driest in 100 years. We have started to see a bit more precipitation in the past few weeks. But not near normal levels. I wonder if the whole west coast is experiencing similar issues?
I am planning on taking my family to Yosemite for the first time in the first week of July (with kids in school we can’t make it earlier). I am now wondering if we should postpone? I didn’t expect Yosemite at its peak in early July. But this could be an exceptionally dry year. Let’s hope for rain. The forests and plants certainly need it.
Craig, yes, I hear it’s been dry up and down the west coast. It’s really hard to say what it will be like in early July. If you can wait until changing plans, we’ll know a lot more over the next couple of months.
Michael, the web cams are looking pretty good this morning. Hopefully you will be posting some new cool clearing storm shots shortly. 🙂
John, this morning was indeed beautiful in Yosemite Valley, and I’ll post some photos when I can.
hello Michael, I am presently driving through the valley between Los Angeles and Sacramento. There are a lot of cloud banks tothe West suggesting there might still be some photographs in this storm.
based on what you have seen this week what would your forecast for tonight and saturday weather?
thank you!
…must add that the clouds petered out as I traveled north.
Sylvia, I only know what I read in the forecasts, and they don’t predict any precipitation tonight or tomorrow.
Its great to get these updates since my good friend and I have committed to make the trip to Yosemite the last week of February. We both have never been to Yosemite and making the trip as a 60th birthday treat to each of us.
I come from the photographic industry in NYC and my buddy Boris has been a friend of mine since H.S.
I hope the weather gets more in line with what Yosemite looks like in the winter for our trip,
or we will have to adjust the shooting to what other seasons look like.
We both purchased your guide, what seasons should we adjust to if the weather does not change?
Thanks Jim, and I hope you have a great trip later this month. You won’t need to adjust to another season when using The Photographer’s Guide to Yosemite. Most of the suggestions in the book and app about where to go in February will still apply, as the light will still be the same regardless of the weather or water levels. The only difference would be if there’s little or no water in the falls, then some of the waterfall locations wouldn’t work as well.
I wish we could send you some of our rain, Michael. It hasn’t properly stopped for weeks and I think Great Britain and Eire are about to disappear altogether if it doesn’t stop! So many coastal towns under water, and all the villages on or near the flood plains. The world is very topsy-turvy with its weather nowadays…
I wish you could too Veronica! It would be better for everyone. Alas, it doesn’t work that way. 🙁
How would I go about purchasing this photo? I have a friend who is interested. Well, I’d be, too, but am sure I couldn’t afford it. Thanks.
Donna, I’ll send you an email with the details.